Identifikasi Datangnya Awal Musim Kemarau (Eddy Hermawan)

IDENTIFIKASI DATANGNYA AWAL MUSIM KEMARAU
DI KAWASAN BARAT INDONESIA
BERBASIS HASIL ANALISIS DATA EAR
 
AN IDENTIFICATION OF THE EARLY DRY SEASON
AT THE WESTERN PART OF INDONESIA
BASED ON THE EAR DATA ANALYSIS

Eddy Hermawan
Pusat Sains dan Teknologi Atmosfer
Lembaga Penerbangan dan Antariksa Nasional (LAPAN)
Jalan Djunjunan, Bandung
Email: eddy_lapan@yahoo.com
 

Abstrak: Studi ini menekankan pentingnya penentuan awal musim, khususnya musim kemarau berbasis hasil analisis data EAR yang ada di SPD LAPAN Kototabang, Sumatera Barat periode Januari hingga Desember 2008 yang dibagi dalam 34 dasa harian dalam bentuk profil vertikal angin meridional. Dari 34 dasarian di atas terlihat bahwa mulai dasarian I (1-10 Januari 2008) hingga dasarian 8 (11-20 Maret 2008) profil angin meridional di “sekitar” 14 km dpl (di atas permukaan laut) masih bernilai positif (+). Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa angin Selatan (Southerly Wind) masih relatif dominan. Setelah itu, memasuki dasarian 9 (21-31 Maret 2008) hingga dasarian 10 (1-10 April 2008) memasuki kondisi netral. Kondisi angin Utara (Northerly Wind) mulai bernilai negatif, terjadi sejak dasarian 11 (11-20 April 2008) hingga mencapai puncaknya di dasarian 14 (11-20 Mei 2008). Semula, kami menduga bahwa ini adalah awal datangnya musim kemarau di kawasan Kototabang dan sekitarnya. Namun, dugaan kami tidak tepat, karena tiba-tiba profil angin kembali ke nilai mendekati netral. Hal ini tidak bisa dijadikan acuan, sebab harus ada konsistensi minimal harus dilanjutkan oleh 3 dasarian berikutnya. Akhirnya, kami menemukan bahwa awal musim kemarau di Kototabang dan sekitarnya dimulai sejak dasarian 16 (1-10 Juni 2008) yang ditandai dengan adanya konsistensi hingga dasarian berikutnya, yakni dasarian 17 (11-20 Juni 2008) dasarian 18 (21-30 Juni 2008). 

Kata kunci: awal musim kemarau, dasarian, dan EAR.

Abstract: This study emphasizes the importance of determining the beginning of the season, especially during the dry season EAR-based analysis of existing data in the SPD LAPAN Kototabang, West Sumatra from January to December 2008, divided into 34 daily dasa in the form of meridional wind vertical profile. Of the 34 dasarian above shows that from dasarian I (1-10 January 2008) until dasarian 8 (11 to 20 March 2008) meridional wind profiles in the "about" 14 km asl (above sea level) still be positive (+). This suggests that the South wind (Wind Southerly) is still relatively dominant. After that, enter dasarian 9 (21 to 31 March 2008) to dasarian 10 (1-10 April 2008) entering the neutral condition. North wind conditions (Northerly Wind) began to be negative, since dasarian 11 (11 to 20 April 2008) until it reaches its peak in dasarian 14 (11 to 20 May 2008). Initially, we suspect that this is the beginning of the coming dry season in Kototabang and surrounding areas. However, our expectation is not appropriate, because suddenly the wind profile return to values ​​close to neutral. This can not be used as a reference, because there must be a minimum of consistency should be continued by the next three dasarian. Finally, we found that the early dry season begins in Kototabang and surrounding areas since dasarian 16 (1-10 June 2008) are characterized by consistency until the next dasarian, namely dasarian 17 (11 to 20 June 2008) dasarian 18 (21-30 June 2008 ).

Keywords: early dry season, dasarian, and EAR.
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Lingkungan Tropis,
Sep 2, 2012, 8:05 AM
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